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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 27

New England Patriots 27 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(9:47) 29-L.Blount up the middle to DAL 27 for no gain (92-J.Mincey).

The Three Options

GO +2.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.23 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 27, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 37, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model