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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 6

Dallas Cowboys 6 – New England Patriots 30

What Actually Happened

(1:26) (Shotgun) 3-B.Weeden pass incomplete short left to 83-T.Williams. Pass incomplete lofted left corner of the end zone.

The Three Options

GO +2.18 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.30 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 6, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +2.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model