Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 81

Dallas Cowboys 3 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(2:11) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 39 yards to NE 42, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 80-D.Amendola to NE 48 for 6 yards (52-A.Gachkar). PENALTY on NE-26-L.Ryan, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 48.

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.97 EP
51% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 81, worth -4.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model