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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 60

New England Patriots 10 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(1:18) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 47 yards to DAL 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 11-C.Beasley.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.34 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 60, worth -3.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 19, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model