4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 19 at the 41

New England Patriots 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(12:49) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 28 yards to DAL 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-36-B.King.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.38 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 41, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -3.29 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model