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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 15 at the 75

New England Patriots 3 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(8:49) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 60 yards to DAL 15, Center-49-J.Cardona. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 13 for -2 yards (18-M.Slater).

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.89 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 75, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 32, worth -1.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model