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LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Jim Harbaugh
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
Saturday 2025-01-11 · 16:30 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

LAC
57.8%
HOU
42.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: +0.079 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • QB edge to LAC: C.J. Stroud (HOU) -0.077 vs Justin Herbert (LAC) +0.167 EPA/dropback (HOU starting C.J. Stroud in place of Davis Mills)
  • HOU offense: -0.078 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • HOU defense: -0.048 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

LAC 24
–
HOU 21
Projected margin: LAC by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 19

LAC

Josh Palmer WR Out Foot
Ja'Sir Taylor CB Doubtful Rib
Eli Apple CB Questionable Hamstring
Simi Fehoko WR Questionable Elbow
Denzel Perryman LB Questionable Groin
J.K. Dobbins RB Questionable Ankle
Quentin Johnston WR Questionable Thigh
Trey Pipkins T Questionable Oblique

HOU

Shaquille Mason G Out Knee
John Metchie WR Questionable Shoulder
Teagan Quitoriano TE Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 19 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 12
–
HOU 32

Prediction missed by 23 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:41 FG LAC (9:41) 11-C.Dicker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 3 – HOU 0
  • Q1 06:39 FG LAC (6:39) 11-C.Dicker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. LAC 6 – HOU 0
  • Q2 01:02 TD HOU (1:02) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – HOU 6
  • Q2 00:06 FG HOU (:06) 15-K.Fairbairn 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. LAC 6 – HOU 10
  • Q3 04:51 FG HOU (4:51) 15-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. LAC 6 – HOU 13
  • Q3 00:21 TD HOU (:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left intended for 15-L.McConkey INTERCEPTED by 23-E.Murray at LAC 38. 23-E.Murray for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – HOU 19
  • Q4 12:03 FG HOU (12:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. LAC 6 – HOU 23
  • Q4 10:50 TD LAC (10:50) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle to 15-L.McConkey for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-D.Hunter]. LAC 12 – HOU 23
  • Q4 03:47 TD HOU (3:47) 28-J.Mixon left tackle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 12 – HOU 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 3 at the 16
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 95%

    (9:41) 11-C.Dicker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 9 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 92%

    (6:39) 11-C.Dicker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (5:10) 6-T.Townsend punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback. PENALTY on HOU-17-K.Boyd, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 20.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 9 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:48) 16-J.Scott punts 35 yards to HOU 28, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-47-J.Harris.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 11 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 46%

    (15:00) 6-T.Townsend punts 38 yards to LAC 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (12:46) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to HOU 12, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 8 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (9:28) 6-T.Townsend punts 50 yards to LAC 25, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 8 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (6:27) 16-J.Scott punts 55 yards to HOU 1, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-33-D.Leonard.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:39) 16-J.Scott punts 48 yards to HOU 22, Center-47-J.Harris. 2-R.Woods to HOU 32 for 10 yards (47-J.Harris).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 2 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 75%

    (10:16) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 1-Q.Johnston to HOU 33 for 1 yard (24-D.Stingley). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 1-Q.Johnston (24-D.Stingley).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 10 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 93%

    (4:51) 15-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 12 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:40) 16-J.Scott punts 36 yards to HOU 37, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 3 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (:28) 6-T.Townsend punts 28 yards to LAC 28, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (12:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 38 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 66%

    (4:48) 7-C.Stroud left guard to LAC 36 for 2 yards (56-M.Fox).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 17 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 94%

    (3:47) 28-J.Mixon left tackle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.