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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 12

Houston Texans 20 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(12:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.13 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model