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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 70

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(:39) 16-J.Scott punts 48 yards to HOU 22, Center-47-J.Harris. 2-R.Woods to HOU 32 for 10 yards (47-J.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.22 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 70, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 28, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model