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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 59

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:46) 16-J.Scott punts 47 yards to HOU 12, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.11 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 59, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP