4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 19

Houston Texans 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(4:51) 15-K.Fairbairn 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.43 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model