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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 21

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(6:39) 11-C.Dicker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.98 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 31, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model