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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Houston Texans
4th & 1 at the 17
Houston Texans 25 – Los Angeles Chargers 12
What Actually Happened
(3:47) 28-J.Mixon left tackle for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+1.66 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +3.14 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 17, worth -1.17 EP
KICK
+0.92 EP
- 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.08 EP
- 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT
-0.94 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.94 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
