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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 67

Houston Texans 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(5:10) 6-T.Townsend punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback. PENALTY on HOU-17-K.Boyd, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.36 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 25, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model