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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 56

Houston Texans 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(:28) 6-T.Townsend punts 28 yards to LAC 28, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.61 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP