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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Houston Texans
4th & 1 at the 38
Houston Texans 25 – Los Angeles Chargers 12
What Actually Happened
(4:48) 7-C.Stroud left guard to LAC 36 for 2 yards (56-M.Fox).
The Three Options
GO
+1.60 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.16 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.72 EP
KICK
+0.33 EP
- 66% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
- 34% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.33 EP
PUNT
-0.50 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
