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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Sunday 2024-12-15 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌧 Rain Spread -4.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

KC
59.3%
CLE
40.7%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • CLE offense: -0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Jameis Winston (CLE): -0.037 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CLE defense: +0.038 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • Wind 18 mph

Predicted Final Score

KC 24
–
CLE 19
Projected margin: KC by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

KC

Marquise Brown WR Out Shoulder
D.J. Humphries T Doubtful Hamstring
Harrison Butker K Questionable Left Knee

CLE

Cedric Tillman WR Out Concussion
David Njoku TE Questionable Hamstring
Michael Hall DT Questionable Knee
Myles Harden CB Questionable Tibia
Joel Bitonio G Questionable Back
Khaleke Hudson LB Questionable Abdomen

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 21
–
CLE 7

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:18 TD KC (12:18) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 9-J.Smith-Schuster for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – CLE 0
  • Q2 04:54 TD KC (4:54) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 83-N.Gray for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE-95-M.Garrett was injured during the play. KC 13 – CLE 0
  • Q3 13:04 TD KC (13:04) (Shotgun) 1-X.Worthy left end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 20 – CLE 0
  • Q3 03:26 TD CLE (3:26) (Shotgun) 34-J.Ford up the middle for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 21 – CLE 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (13:46) 14-M.Araiza punts 38 yards to CLE 25, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-J.Proche to CLE 25 for no gain (30-C.Roland-Wallace). FUMBLES (30-C.Roland-Wallace), touched at CLE 23, RECOVERED by KC-34-S.Perine at CLE 21.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 7 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 18%

    (7:53) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to KC 16, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 81-N.Remigio pushed ob at KC 19 for 3 yards (40-N.Watson). PENALTY on CLE-43-M.Diabate, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at KC 19.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 4 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (5:50) 14-M.Araiza punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (:18) 14-M.Araiza punts 41 yards to CLE 30, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (14:08) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 68 yards to KC 2, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 81-N.Remigio to KC 18 for 16 yards (40-N.Watson). PENALTY on CLE-43-M.Diabate, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at KC 18.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 6 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (13:16) 14-M.Araiza punts 40 yards to CLE 33, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (11:49) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to KC 13, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 47%

    (3:28) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass incomplete deep left to 8-E.Moore (13-N.Johnson).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 2 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 96%

    (:24) 7-H.Butker 29 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. ** Injury Update: CLE-93-S.Harris has returned to the game.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 10 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 36%

    (11:53) 14-M.Araiza punts 37 yards to CLE 7, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-J.Proche. ** Injury Update: CLE-97-J.Briggs has returned to the game.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 15 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 24%

    (6:59) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to KC 9, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 12 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:21) 14-M.Araiza punts 30 yards to KC 49, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-43-J.Cochrane.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (3:01) 14-M.Araiza punts 56 yards to CLE 14, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-J.Proche ran ob at CLE 26 for 12 yards (54-L.Chenal). PENALTY on CLE-20-P.Strong, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 21.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 10 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (:05) 14-M.Araiza punts 41 yards to CLE 33, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 3 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 50%

    (8:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short middle to 9-J.Smith-Schuster [94-D.Tomlinson]. KC-15-P.Mahomes was injured during the play.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 16 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:30) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to KC 15, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 3 at the 61 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (3:30) 14-M.Araiza punts 58 yards to CLE 3, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-J.Proche to CLE 12 for 9 yards (43-J.Cochrane).