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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 15 at the 49

Cleveland Browns 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(6:59) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to KC 9, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.74 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -1.30 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT +0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth +0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model