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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 11

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(:24) 7-H.Butker 29 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza. ** Injury Update: CLE-93-S.Harris has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +2.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +4.74 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +2.46 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 22, worth -0.24 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model