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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 39

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(8:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short middle to 9-J.Smith-Schuster [94-D.Tomlinson]. KC-15-P.Mahomes was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.37 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 39, worth -1.85 EP
KICK -0.41 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 48, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model