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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 40

Cleveland Browns 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(3:28) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass incomplete deep left to 8-E.Moore (13-N.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.43 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -1.80 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model