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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 63

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(13:46) 14-M.Araiza punts 38 yards to CLE 25, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-J.Proche to CLE 25 for no gain (30-C.Roland-Wallace). FUMBLES (30-C.Roland-Wallace), touched at CLE 23, RECOVERED by KC-34-S.Perine at CLE 21.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.83 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 63, worth -3.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 21, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP