4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 61

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(3:30) 14-M.Araiza punts 58 yards to CLE 3, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-J.Proche to CLE 12 for 9 yards (43-J.Cochrane).

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +0.67 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 61, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 20, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model