Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 16 at the 56

Cleveland Browns 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

(5:30) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to KC 15, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 81-N.Remigio.

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.94 EP
74% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 56, worth -2.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model