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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 52

Cleveland Browns 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(7:53) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 36 yards to KC 16, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 81-N.Remigio pushed ob at KC 19 for 3 yards (40-N.Watson). PENALTY on CLE-43-M.Diabate, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at KC 19.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.23 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 52, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -1.64 EP
  • 18% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 82% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 15, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model