Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 10 at the 74

Kansas City Chiefs 21 – Cleveland Browns 7

(:05) 14-M.Araiza punts 41 yards to CLE 33, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.34 EP
62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 74, worth -4.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model