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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 73

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(13:16) 14-M.Araiza punts 40 yards to CLE 33, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.51 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 73, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 31, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model