TEN @ HOU — 4th & Data

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HC Brian Callahan

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HC DeMeco Ryans

Sunday 2024-11-24 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 8.0 O/U 40.5

Win Probability

TEN

31.8%

HOU

68.2%

🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

TEN offense: -0.142 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
HOU defense: -0.090 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
Indoors — weather neutralised
C.J. Stroud (HOU): +0.001 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

TEN 19

–

HOU 25

Projected margin: HOU by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

TEN

Jack Gibbens LB Out Ankle

L'Jarius Sneed CB Out Quadricep

Leroy Watson T Out Back

Tyjae Spears RB Out Concussion

Justin Hardee CB Questionable Groin

Roger McCreary CB Questionable Knee

HOU

Folorunso Fatukasi DT Out Foot

Blake Fisher T Out Concussion

Denico Autry DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 32

–

HOU 27

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 14:47 TD HOU (14:47) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass deep right to 87-C.Stover for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – HOU 6
Q1 11:19 FG TEN (11:19) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 3 – HOU 7
Q1 02:03 TD TEN (2:03) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 9 – HOU 7
Q2 11:07 TD TEN (11:07) 20-T.Pollard up the middle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 16 – HOU 7
Q2 06:22 TD HOU (6:22) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 12-N.Collins for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 17 – HOU 13
Q2 01:49 FG HOU (1:49) 15-K.Fairbairn 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. TEN 17 – HOU 17
Q2 00:02 FG TEN (:02) 6-N.Folk 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 20 – HOU 17
Q3 09:12 FG TEN (9:12) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 23 – HOU 17
Q3 00:15 TD HOU (:15) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short left intended for 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Ward at HOU 35. 20-J.Ward for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 23 – HOU 23
Q4 09:50 FG HOU (9:50) 15-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend. TEN 23 – HOU 27
Q4 09:46 TD TEN (9:46) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass short right to 85-C.Okonkwo for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 29 – HOU 27
Q4 01:17 SAF TEN (1:17) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (58-H.Landry). TEN 32 – HOU 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 TEN 4th & 8 at the 33

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 76%

(11:19) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Q1 HOU 4th & 9 at the 58

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(8:03) 6-T.Townsend punts 47 yards to TEN 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-J.Jackson.
Q1 TEN 4th & 1 at the 44

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 66% p(FG) 51%

(2:45) 8-W.Levis scrambles right end to HOU 38 for 6 yards (21-C.Bullock).
Q2 HOU 4th & 8 at the 64

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(15:00) 6-T.Townsend punts 50 yards to TEN 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-J.Jackson ran ob at TEN 22 for 8 yards (87-C.Stover). PENALTY on TEN-24-J.Wood, Illegal Blindside Block, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 10.
Q2 HOU 4th & 10 at the 10

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

(1:49) 15-K.Fairbairn 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Q2 TEN 4th & 11 at the 44

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 51%

(:54) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 38 yards to HOU 6, Center-46-M.Cox. 2-R.Woods to HOU 14 for 8 yards (41-O.Reese).
Q3 TEN 4th & 10 at the 32

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 78%

(9:12) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.
Q3 HOU 4th & 5 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47%

(7:07) 6-T.Townsend punts 49 yards to TEN 16, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-J.Jackson.
Q3 TEN 4th & 13 at the 77

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29%

(2:27) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 52 yards to HOU 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 2-R.Woods to HOU 25 for no gain (80-B.Oliver).
Q4 TEN 4th & 17 at the 80

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26%

(13:09) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 62 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-M.Cox. 2-R.Woods to HOU 34 for 16 yards (46-M.Cox; 52-J.Williams).
Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 36

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP

p(convert) 52% p(FG) 70%

(9:50) 15-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Q4 HOU 4th & 19 at the 56

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25%

(6:28) 6-T.Townsend punts 52 yards to TEN 4, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 6 for 2 yards (33-D.Ogunbowale; 43-N.Hewitt).
Q4 TEN 4th & 14 at the 98

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(5:29) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 37 yards to TEN 39, Center-46-M.Cox. 2-R.Woods to TEN 39 for no gain (23-T.Avery). PENALTY on HOU-4-K.Lassiter, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 39.
Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 10 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

(1:56) 15-K.Fairbairn 28 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.
Q4 TEN 4th & 6 at the 76 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(1:39) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 61 yards to HOU 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 2-R.Woods to HOU 27 for 12 yards (81-J.Whyle). PENALTY on HOU-29-M.Stewart, Illegal Blindside Block, 7 yards, enforced at HOU 15.