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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 77

Tennessee Titans 23 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 52 yards to HOU 25, Center-46-M.Cox. 2-R.Woods to HOU 25 for no gain (80-B.Oliver).

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.80 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 77, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 34, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model