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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 65

Houston Texans 17 – Tennessee Titans 23

What Actually Happened

(7:07) 6-T.Townsend punts 49 yards to TEN 16, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-J.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.12 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 65, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 23, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model