Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 64

Houston Texans 7 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-T.Townsend punts 50 yards to TEN 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-J.Jackson ran ob at TEN 22 for 8 yards (87-C.Stover). PENALTY on TEN-24-J.Wood, Illegal Blindside Block, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 10.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.55 EP
61% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 64, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model