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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 58

Houston Texans 7 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(8:03) 6-T.Townsend punts 47 yards to TEN 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 19-J.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.07 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 58, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model