Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 17 at the 80

Tennessee Titans 23 – Houston Texans 24

(13:09) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 62 yards to HOU 18, Center-46-M.Cox. 2-R.Woods to HOU 34 for 16 yards (46-M.Cox; 52-J.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.79 EP
74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 80, worth -4.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model