Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 14 at the 98

Tennessee Titans 30 – Houston Texans 27

What Actually Happened

(5:29) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 37 yards to TEN 39, Center-46-M.Cox. 2-R.Woods to TEN 39 for no gain (23-T.Avery). PENALTY on HOU-4-K.Lassiter, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 39.

The Three Options

GO -4.10 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.51 EP
69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 98, worth -6.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (115 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model