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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 32

Tennessee Titans 20 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(9:12) 6-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.49 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 42, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model