Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 19 at the 56

Houston Texans 27 – Tennessee Titans 30

(6:28) 6-T.Townsend punts 52 yards to TEN 4, Center-46-J.Weeks. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 6 for 2 yards (33-D.Ogunbowale; 43-N.Hewitt).

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.35 EP
75% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 56, worth -2.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model