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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 36

Houston Texans 24 – Tennessee Titans 23

What Actually Happened

(9:50) 15-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.70 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 36, worth -1.77 EP
KICK +0.42 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP