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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 10

Houston Texans 27 – Tennessee Titans 30

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 15-K.Fairbairn 28 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.07 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 10, worth -0.41 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model