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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Jim Harbaugh
Monday 2024-11-25 · 20:15 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

BAL
64.3%
LAC
35.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: +0.234 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Lamar Jackson (BAL): +0.307 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LAC offense: +0.028 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 27
–
LAC 22
Projected margin: BAL by 5 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

BAL

Sanoussi Kane S Out Ankle
Arthur Maulet CB Out Calf
Roquan Smith LB Questionable Hamstring
Travis Jones DT Questionable Ankle
Tyler Linderbaum C Questionable Back

LAC

Hayden Hurst TE Out Hip
Denzel Perryman LB Out Groin
Cam Hart CB Questionable Concussion
Deane Leonard CB Questionable Hamstring
Bud Dupree DE Questionable Foot
A.J. Finley S Questionable Ankle
Khalil Mack DE Questionable Groin
Ladd McConkey WR Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 30
–
LAC 23

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:52 TD LAC (9:52) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert scrambles up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 0 – LAC 6
  • Q2 11:30 FG LAC (11:30) 11-C.Dicker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. BAL 0 – LAC 10
  • Q2 07:55 TD BAL (7:55) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – LAC 10
  • Q2 00:32 TD BAL (:32) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 7-R.Bateman for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LAC-7-K.Fulton, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. BAL 13 – LAC 10
  • Q2 00:02 FG LAC (:02) 11-C.Dicker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. BAL 14 – LAC 13
  • Q3 09:33 FG BAL (9:33) 9-J.Tucker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 17 – LAC 13
  • Q3 04:12 FG LAC (4:12) 11-C.Dicker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott. BAL 17 – LAC 16
  • Q4 12:36 TD BAL (12:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 23 – LAC 16
  • Q4 07:34 TD BAL (7:34) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill left end for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC-32-A.Gilman was injured during the play. BAL 29 – LAC 16
  • Q4 00:50 TD LAC (:50) (Shotgun) 4-G.Edwards left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 30 – LAC 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 20 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (6:37) 11-J.Stout punts 57 yards to LAC 13, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 10 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:03) 16-J.Scott punts 43 yards to BAL 31, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 16-T.Wallace. PENALTY on BAL-2-N.Wiggins, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 31.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 5 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (2:11) 11-J.Stout punts 62 yards to LAC 17, Center-46-N.Moore. 12-D.Davis to LAC 36 for 19 yards (40-M.Harrison).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 30
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 82%

    (13:04) 4-G.Edwards right tackle to BAL 27 for 3 yards (54-K.Welch).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 7 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 89%

    (11:30) 11-C.Dicker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 32%

    (4:04) 16-J.Scott punts 45 yards to BAL 7, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-33-D.Leonard.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 84
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 77%

    (2:00) Direct snap to 89-M.Andrews. 89-M.Andrews up the middle to BAL 18 for 2 yards (31-N.Niemann; 0-D.Henley).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 4 at the 27
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 86%

    (9:33) 9-J.Tucker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 11 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 75%

    (4:12) 11-C.Dicker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 75%

    (2:38) 22-D.Henry left guard to LAC 34 for 27 yards (0-D.Henley; 29-T.Still).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 25
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 88%

    (15:00) 22-D.Henry up the middle to LAC 23 for 2 yards (31-N.Niemann).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (10:52) 16-J.Scott punts 38 yards to BAL 28, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 18 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 41%

    (6:39) 16-J.Scott punts 39 yards to BAL 9, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-36-J.Taylor.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 15 at the 81 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:14) 11-J.Stout punts 44 yards to LAC 37, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 9 at the 62 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 15-L.McConkey to BAL 44 for 18 yards (29-A.Washington).