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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Baltimore Ravens
4th & 1 at the 25
Baltimore Ravens 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 16
What Actually Happened
(15:00) 22-D.Henry up the middle to LAC 23 for 2 yards (31-N.Niemann).
The Three Options
GO
+2.72 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.29 EP
- 29% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.10 EP
KICK
+1.17 EP
- 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
- 12% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT
-0.11 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
