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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 79

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:11) 11-J.Stout punts 62 yards to LAC 17, Center-46-N.Moore. 12-D.Davis to LAC 36 for 19 yards (40-M.Harrison).

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.74 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.22 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 36, worth -2.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP