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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 30

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(13:04) 4-G.Edwards right tackle to BAL 27 for 3 yards (54-K.Welch).

The Three Options

GO +2.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.19 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 40, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model