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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 15 at the 81

Baltimore Ravens 30 – Los Angeles Chargers 16

What Actually Happened

(3:14) 11-J.Stout punts 44 yards to LAC 37, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 12-D.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.37 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 38, worth -1.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model