4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 34

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(4:12) 11-C.Dicker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.52 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 34, worth -1.47 EP
KICK +0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 44, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model