4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 52

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(4:04) 16-J.Scott punts 45 yards to BAL 7, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-33-D.Leonard.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.77 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 52, worth -2.64 EP
KICK -1.15 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 15, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP