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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 24

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(11:30) 11-C.Dicker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.98 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 34, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model