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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 84

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) Direct snap to 89-M.Andrews. 89-M.Andrews up the middle to BAL 18 for 2 yards (31-N.Niemann; 0-D.Henley).

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.67 EP
  • 23% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.19 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 42, worth -2.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model