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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 18 at the 48

Los Angeles Chargers 16 – Baltimore Ravens 30

What Actually Happened

(6:39) 16-J.Scott punts 39 yards to BAL 9, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-36-J.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.76 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 48, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -0.83 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model