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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
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Seattle Seahawks

HC Mike Macdonald
Sunday 2024-11-03 · 16:25 Lumen Field, Seattle US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

LA
47.4%
SEA
52.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • LA defense: +0.104 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • SEA defense: +0.045 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Geno Smith (SEA): +0.120 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LA on 3 more days rest than SEA

Predicted Final Score

LA 24
–
SEA 25
Projected margin: SEA by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

LA

Ethan Evans P Out Illness
Neville Gallimore DT Out Shoulder
Joseph Noteboom T Out Ankle
Puka Nacua WR Questionable Knee
Charles Woods CB Questionable Toe
Kamren Curl S Questionable Knee
Jordan Whittington WR Questionable Shoulder

SEA

Noah Fant TE Out Groin
Abraham Lucas T Out Knee
DK Metcalf WR Out Knee
Cameron Young DT Out Knee
Ernest Jones LB Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 26
–
SEA 20

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 03:34 FG LA (3:34) 16-J.Karty 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-46-T.Zentner. LA 3 – SEA 0
  • Q2 00:55 TD SEA (:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 16-T.Lockett for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LA-91-K.Turner, Defensive Offside, declined. LA 3 – SEA 6
  • Q2 00:11 TD SEA (:11) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN [0-B.Young]. LA 3 – SEA 12
  • Q3 08:31 TD LA (8:31) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 15-D.Robinson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 9 – SEA 13
  • Q3 00:30 FG LA (:30) 16-J.Karty 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-46-T.Zentner. LA 13 – SEA 13
  • Q4 11:17 TD LA (11:17) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left intended for 11-J.Smith-Njigba INTERCEPTED by 26-K.Kinchens [0-B.Young] at LA -3. 26-K.Kinchens to SEA 1 for 102 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at SEA -8. TOUCHDOWN. LA 19 – SEA 13
  • Q4 00:57 TD SEA (:57) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 20 – SEA 19
  • Q5 05:04 TD LA (5:04) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 15-D.Robinson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 26 – SEA 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 61%

    (12:39) 9-K.Walker left end to LA 37 for 2 yards (48-O.Speights).

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 13 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 58%

    (10:38) 4-M.Dickson punts 29 yards to LA 11, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 3 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (10:01) 46-T.Zentner punts 53 yards to SEA 29, Center-47-A.Ward. 33-D.Williams to SEA 40 for 11 yards (19-X.Smith).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 19 at the 38
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 63%

    (5:38) 46-T.Zentner punts 25 yards to SEA 13, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (3:02) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to LA 17, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-X.Smith to LA 21 for 4 yards (33-D.Williams).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 5 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (1:24) 46-T.Zentner punts 36 yards to SEA 38, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 8 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (:34) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to LA 9, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-X.Smith to LA 10 for 1 yard (1-L.Shenault).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 7 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 30%

    (13:58) 46-T.Zentner punts 37 yards to SEA 14, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-19-X.Smith.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 12 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 92%

    (3:34) 16-J.Karty 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-46-T.Zentner.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 19 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:13) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to LA 35, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 99%

    (:30) 16-J.Karty 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-46-T.Zentner.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 14 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (9:57) 4-M.Dickson punts 45 yards to LA 29, Center-41-C.Stoll, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 8 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:52) 46-T.Zentner punt is BLOCKED by 82-C.White, Center-47-A.Ward, recovered by LA-84-H.Long at LA 19.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 3 at the 86 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59%

    (4:39) 46-T.Zentner punts 50 yards to SEA 36, Center-47-A.Ward. 33-D.Williams to SEA 38 for 2 yards (22-B.Corum).

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 17 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (3:09) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to LA 20, Center-41-C.Stoll. 19-X.Smith pushed ob at LA 28 for 8 yards (32-J.Reed). ** Injury Update: LA-30-J.Wallace has returned to the game.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 9 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:00) 46-T.Zentner punts 44 yards to SEA 27, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 33-D.Williams.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 5 at the 43 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 50%

    (1:03) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba pushed ob at LA 14 for 29 yards (26-K.Kinchens).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 2 at the 51 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 30%

    (:28) 46-T.Zentner punts 36 yards to SEA 15, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-35-J.Hummel.