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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 69

Los Angeles Rams 20 – Seattle Seahawks 13

What Actually Happened

(8:52) 46-T.Zentner punt is BLOCKED by 82-C.White, Center-47-A.Ward, recovered by LA-84-H.Long at LA 19.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.96 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 69, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 27, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model